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Author Topic: No Significant Global Warming since 1995  (Read 936 times)
El Deano
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« on: February 15, 2010, 06:56:15 PM »

And there has been slight global cooling since 2002...

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Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?

An initial point to make is that in the responses to these questions I've assumed that when you talk about the global temperature record, you mean the record that combines the estimates from land regions with those from the marine regions of the world. CRU produces the land component, with the Met Office Hadley Centre producing the marine component.

Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other.

Here are the trends and significances for each period:
Period    Length    Trend
(Degrees C per decade)    Significance
1860-1880    21    0.163    Yes
1910-1940    31    0.15    Yes
1975-1998    24    0.166    Yes
1975-2009    35    0.161    Yes

B - Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming

Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.

C - Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling?

No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.


So who is Phil Jones and why should I care...

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He is most notable for maintaining the time series of the instrumental temperature record;[1] this work figured prominently in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers.[2] He was director of the Climatic Research Unit[3] and a Professor in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia in Norwich. His research interests are instrumental climate change, palaeoclimatology, detection of climate change and the extension of riverflow records in the UK. He was a contributing author to the IPCC's 2001 Third Assessment Report chapter 12 Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes. Together with Michael E. Mann, he has published on the temperature record of the past 1000 years. In late 2009, certain climate-change-related emails of his became controversial.[4]


Yes...that guy...

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